Food inflation in India, 2011

Intensifying affluence in rural India is leading to food scarcity, which is driving up food prices says RBI Governor D Subbarao. Since rural incomes are going up, people are eating better by shifting from cereal to protein (rich diet) and it is leading to food scarcity.

Food inflation is now morphing into a structural feature and is being driven by rising food demand in a fast-growing economy plagued by a creaky food supply chain, endemic inefficiencies and poor infrastructure in the critical agricultural sector. “This year, inflation seems to be driven by demand factors, despite higher supply levels,” the Survey said. This is in contrast to the fact that in the last fiscal, inflation was mostly driven by a deficient monsoon, leading to scarcity of certain food products like pulses, cereals and sugar.

Punjab’s cultivation is an instance for the other states:

Food scarcity could be tackled effectively if half of the states in the country would touch the productivity level achieved by Punjab, the country's food bowl. Punjab's food grain yield is pegged at 4,231 kg per hectare against the national average of 1,909 kg per hectare. For stepping up farm productivity and production, it is necessary to increase investment in water management and rural infrastructure, Subbarao said. About 60 percent of the country's farm land relies on rain water for irrigation.

What can be the possible solution to tackle this problem? India cannot import food as it has to feed around 1.2 billion people. Our food prices are lower than that of world prices. The country cannot import food and sell them here unless it subsidizes. Subsidizing food on a large scale is unimaginable.

There exists a paradoxical situation of subsidizing farmers for producing food and subsidizing consumers so that that they get food at lower price. It is simply unsustainable. Focus should also be there in reducing risks due to poor monsoon.

Efficiency in agriculture can be an aid to subordinate food prices:

“Primary articles inflation has been an issue due to surging demand and supply shortage,” said K. Ramanathan, Chief Investment Officer-Single Manager Investments, and ING Investment Management India. He also stated that more focus needs to be there on mounting acreage/arable land and productivity in agriculture.

Higher claims on subsidies (food, fertilizer and oil), pressures to increase social spending in the background of several State elections and absence of one-offs like the 3G bounty (which accounted for almost 1.3 per cent of GDP in 2011) would be the challenges the finance minister has to compete with. India’s food inflation accelerated to a one-month high and services growth quickened, bolstering the case for more interest-rate increases.

Food Inflation among the world economies:

 India's food inflation was the second lowest among all emerging economies in the 2010 calendar year and the country also witnessed one of the steepest declines in overall inflation, the Survey said. It said India's average food inflation in November, 2010, was 5.4 per cent, far lower than 15.8 per cent in Argentina, 9.2 per cent in Brazil and 11.7 per cent in China, as per data on 15 emerging nations from the International Labor Organization for the month. Other major emerging economies, including Argentina, Brazil, China, Egypt, Iran, Pakistan, Uruguay, Ukraine and Indonesia the Survey also blamed currency competition for creating inflationary pressure in emerging economies. Talking about the issue, it said each country's central bank is taking steps according to their own views. "This has given rise to destabilizing currency competitions and may be a factor behind the recent increase in inflation in emerging economies," the Survey said.

Food inflation keeps fluctuating from time to time in February 2011:

India's annual food inflation rose to 11.49 percent for the week ended Feb 12, according to official data released Thursday. The data showed that the food inflation has marginally increased 0.44 percentage points from 11.05 percent recorded in the previous week. The annual inflation based on wholesale prices was 8.23 percent in January, while it stood at 8.43 percent in December, 2010. Commenting on the inflation rate Prime Minister Manmohan Singh informed Lok Sabha that food inflation would come down with the overall inflation to be no more than 7 percent by March-end. 'By the end of this fiscal year, inflation will be controlled. I expect the situation to improve,' Manmohan Singh told the Lok Sabha, replying to a debate on the motion of thanks to the president's address. Meanwhile, the annual inflation for primary articles was up 15.77 percent during the week ended Feb 12, in the latest week, compared to 14.59 percent in the previous week.

Budget 2011 stands as a hope:

Pranab Mukherjee, Finance Minister however exuded confidence that the RBI's monetary policy would lead to moderation in inflation in the coming months. He also put emphasis on increasing agricultural productivity to curb food inflation. Presenting a silver line however he affirmed, last year had been a remarkable fiscal year and that the Indian economy was expected to grow steadily at 9 per cent. As per the fiscal deficit reduction road map, the deficit is to be cut to 4.8 per cent of GDP. Mukherjee said: “I see Budget 2011-12 as a transition towards more transparent and a result-oriented economic management.”

Margazhi, the month I adore....

Margazhi is the month for andal. The whole month is usually engrossed with Thiruppavai, hot pongal and big kolams in embellished front of everyone’s house. The story ensuing Margazhi is that, Goddess Lakshmi incarnated as "Andal" in the earth, which is now called as holy place "Srivilliputhur”.  The month starts with

Margazhi Thingal denotes Margazhi month, in Tamil "Thingal" indicates month.  After a certain phase, Andal aspires to marry Lord Vishnu. So, she incited Vrata called as Margazhi Nonbu (Pavai Nonbu) during this month. She chose Margazhi because in Bhagavat Geetha Lord Krishna has reminisced that he is Margazhi among months.  All the days in this month she wakes up early in the morning and sing (pasurams) songs on Lord Vishnu called as "Thiruppavai" with her friends. Finally, she got married with Lord Vishnu. Every pasuram has its own allusion and consonance in it.   

Margazhi in my yesteryears:

Margazhi just passed by, such a refreshing and an affable month. The overture of the month gives me an awesome feel. After a sturdy karthigai rain comes the unruffled month. One of the exquisite things I esteem in this month is the weather and the kolams.

The day customarily instigates early in the morning with hot pongal and a big kolam, then amma reciting “kathiravan gunathisai” and all the 30 pasurams. Amma and appa used to edify and profess about andal and her pasurams everyday in this month.  Andal’s love and devotion for Krishna is sung in each and every pasuram. I habitually go to the temple both in the dawn and dusk. We used to have a lot of talks about andal during this month.

Every pasuram has its own implication. On each day pongal is done for perumal excluding “karavaigal” and “koodarai vellum”.  Dhadhiyonam n sweet pongal is prepared on these days correspondingly.

This was the first Margazhi in New Jersey. We celebrated and commemorated the same way our parents did. Snow was in progress by this juncture. It was exorbitantly frosty. I had unconditionally a distinctive ambiance.  Me and Manoj woke up early in the morning, recited Thiruppavai and had pongal. The unmitigated house was crammed with divinity. We were here only for 10 days in Margazhi and we had to leave for India, the rest of the days in Margazhi were apportioned in Chennai. It was so congenial and amusing there. We went to a lot of temples in order to rejoice commemorate Margazhi  and had a nostalgic Margazhi this time. End of Margazhi comes Thai- Sankaranthi festival. This is one of the important festivals for tamilians.

20....navarathri....09

Navarathri 2009 was amazing. I celebrated it with utmost devotion and dedication. Before the golu scenario let me explain the prologue of the festival. Mylapore is the first place I love on this earth. Me, my neighbor and my mother-in-law went to the mylapore mada veedhi and got dasavatharam bommai set, kamadhenu set and materials for park decorations. My god the dolls were exorbitant, I have never got into all these. I felt multifarious, never mind we had fun.

The golu started on Monday, apparently on Saturday and Sunday I had to embellish our house with grand materials. On Saturday I cleaned the house and did felicitous decorations applicable to my house. On the auspicious Sunday I did the main golu work.

Firstly I started with a fancy work. I had cut newspapers into small pieces and rolled it to thick cylinders, pasted it on a chart and gave shades of the orange family colors on one and green family colors on the other and finally did a face over it. I pasted this at the apex of golu which meant the two faces were seeing the golu with a great startle.
Secondly I painted the ahals, I had 7 big ahals and 7 small ahals, I painted different designs, shades and gradations on it.
Thirdly I started with the park. This was the stupendous part. I had all toys and grass fields so I just laid sand all over the park area and decorated it with black stones on the borders and filled the grass fields on the four sides and enhanced it with the toys. When I started this park the hindi class banged my mind. That was a scrumptious place which resembled my golu park. Every evening I go to my hindi class, outside the class there was a park where many children play, elders go for walking etc. I wanted it like that and finally my park came out kindred to the hindi class park.
Fourthly I started with the thirupathi malai with mahesh. I did hard work, had to get the sand from 2 streets ahead, had to get stones, did some handicrafts etc.

On the Sunday night the house looked so wondrous. I felt so splendid. To beautify the golu, I decided to keep my paintings beside it.

My mom had come that day to give the navarathri seer, she was jubilant to see my handicrafts. She didn't have the heart to go, she has been always interested in all these, she appreciated my works, in fact she was wholly responsible for my involvement in the golu celebration, she encouraged me in each n everything. My parents-in-law and my hubby felt so happy to see my fascination as they are conventional they like all these celebrations.

Last but not the least I started with the main golu work, the golu stand was fitted by our workman, and then I had put two white clothes on the stand. Before I could start decorations and arrangements, the kumbham or the ceremonial jar for holy water, which is a conical vessel, is filled with fresh water. A silk cloth covers the mouth of the vessel, a coconut and mango leaves are placed on top of it. This is generally placed in the first or the third step.

“Navarathri” is a composite festival celebrated all over India, depending on the New Moon (Amavasya - dark moon night). The essence of this festival consists of fasts and worship the different aspects of “Mahalakshmi thayar” on each of the nine days. Navarathri is known as the “Festival of Nights” honoring the goddesses.

On the first step I placed my favorite srinivasar, thayar and andal with gajalakshmi on both
sides. On the back of them I placed goddess saraswati, mahalakshmi, vinayagar and gayathri.
On the second step I positioned the dasavatharam and ramar set (ramar, lakshmanar, sita and anchaneyar) with few other small dolls.
On the third step I organized the kamadhenu set, sriman narayanar, vaikundanadhaperumal set and the beautiful kids with the phone, this is such an old piece.
On the fourth step I placed the hayagrivar, the kanakadhara set, the bride and the bridegroom, raghavendrar and kutty krishnar.
On the fifth step I arranged the krishnar and gopikas around him, the gypsies set, the parrot set and bharathiyar.
I can’t tell this as the sixth step as we r supposed to keep the steps in odd numbers. So I just kept two decorative steps. On this I arranged the chettiyar and chettichi set and on the other
side, I aligned the decorative ahals.

Now the golu is ready. My mother-in-law lit the lamp in front of the golu. Manoj decorated the hall with different lights. The house appeared so splendorous.

Any festival gets its consummation only when hearts are bound together, yes I meant the people. So I started to greet them. To commence with I invited my neighbors, then my area mates and finally my friends and relatives who reside in Chennai. Everyone came with utmost pleasure and bustle and made us complacent. On all the ten days our house was brimmed with people. I also had a nice time in visiting my favorite ones home. I gifted all the people who came home.I decided to gift according to the age, so I bestowed boxes for the elders and small toys for the kidos. I had unexpected visits of my amative ones too.

Navrathri is not only famous for dolls but its also famous for the delicious"sundal". Different varieties of sundals was prepared on each day. When I recollect those days I can still feel the taste hitting my tongue. Kids had a healthy competition to win the sundals. We were amazed to see their unique talents so we distributed the sundals to them after offering(kandarulludhal) it to the god.

Ayudha Puja is an integral part of the Navaratri festival (festival of triumph) which is celebrated in India. It is also called "Astra Puja", the synonym for Ayudha Puja. In simple terms, it means “Worship of Implements”.

It is said that on Vijayadashami day Arjuna, third of the five Pandava brothers, retrieved his weapons of war from the hole in the Shami tree where he had hid it before proceeding on the forced exile. After completing his exile period of 13 years including one year of Agyatavas (living incognito) before embarking on the war path against the Kauravas he retrieved his weapons. In the Kurukshetra war that ensued, Arjuna was victorious. Pandavas returned on Vijayadashami day and since then this day gained more importance.

The tools and all implements of vocation were first cleaned. All the tools, machines, vehicles and other devices were then painted or well polished after which they were smeared with turmeric paste, sandalwood paste in form of a pottu(a big circle) and kumkum. We were transformed to a human train in the morning, my father-in-law carried the karpooram, ,manoj had the sandhanam and I took the kumkum. We went around the house to keep pottu on our valuable things. On the morning of the puja that is on the navami day, the implements were all worshiped along with the images of Saraswati. Books and musical instruments were also placed on the pedestal for worship and they were decorated with flowers. On the day of the puja, these were not to be disturbed. The day was spent in worship and contemplation. When I was a kid my brother Kannan and I used to keep all our books in the pooja so that we avoided studies the whole day.

After these nine days comes the “Dashami”, the tenth day, which has its own importance “Vijaya Dashami (the day of victory). This is the day “Lord Rama had killed Ravana” , which signifies the victory of good over evil. “Vaishnavas”generally celebrate “Vijay Dashami” with great signification. It is auspicious to start any work today. Kidos join school, music class etc. This day reminds my childhood days. I used to join carnatic music class, tuition classes etc......... lovely days, am glad that it didn't end with my childhood days, it continued this year too, I had joined embroidery class which went on very well.

The momentous festival had an exhilarated end. I had amusement on all the ten days. Enjoyed every bit of the golu to the core. Hope every year turns out to be the festival like navarathri 2009.

Note: This article starts and ends with Navarathri 2009.

An episode has come to an end

I dedicate this article to my dear paati(grand mother) late. Mrs. Janaki Parthasarathy.

My days with my granny were erratic but on the whole it was really cherishing. She had a great care as well as a great consternation on me. Right from my birth I have been with her, she stayed close to my house and almost every day I go and see her. She used to call me as chellamma with a feeble tone and the way she called me delivered her true love. I was her first grand daughter and she was proud of me because I was neither mischievous nor I played pranks on anyone.

She was more than a friend to me and she was so flexible enough to accept the contemporary trend and our ideas. She was a strict disciplinarian and she portrayed herself as a tough authoritarian but after my marriage she dint even spell a word on me. She was a loyal and an unbiased person and judge things so carefully. She maintained her relationship so well among everyone that is why she is been liked by everybody even now. I wonder so many things in her, she was an uneducated person but she performed like a professional. She did things so professionally and had an affluent stroke in it.

She was an amazing homemaker. She was neither a spend thrift nor a miser. She used to do festivals and functions in an ostentatious manner with low budget. She had a rich flavor in accomplishing things and she presents her skill in any form so magnificently.

As far as I know about her history she has suffered a lot all over her life but she is not an optimistic person. She feared a lot on the contrary she was a valiant female and faced great challenges in life. She was so pious and god fearing but she never imposed her beliefs to her children or her grand children. She cheers each n every talent in a child. She was very punctual and she was a perfectionist and she expected the same from her generations. My god I had worst days in molding myself with her. She was a very good trainer.

She was a hard worker and a graceful person. I have never seen her resting in a place for more than 5 minutes. A day came where all our glee took a pause, it was the day when report came diagnosing as cancer, such a horrible day it was. It happened in the month of January, all of us were worried except her. She was least bothered about it. It was a great struggle for her. She took everything positively and co operated for all her treatments. Still she suffered every now n then. Finally on Sep 29th 2009 god saved her from this perilous disease. She permanently rested in peace.

After her death when we saw her write ups and letters for us we were flabbergasted. She has completely roofed about the unity among the family and she insisted us to pursue the same. She is still with us guiding us to the path of perfection.

I’m fortunate to be her granddaughter.

Global Warming

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans in recent decades and its predictable continuation.

Green House effect:
It is the absorption of the heat by certain gases in the atmosphere. It is real and absolutely helps to regulate temperature of our planet. It is essential for life on Earth and is one of Earth's natural processes. It is the result of heat absorption by certain gases in the atmosphere called greenhouse gases because they effectively 'trap' heat in the lower atmosphere and re-radiation gets downward of some due to heat.

Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas, followed by carbon dioxide and other trace gases. Without a natural greenhouse effect, the temperature of the Earth would be about zero degrees F (-18°C) instead of its present 57°F (14°C). So, the concern is not with the fact that we have a greenhouse effect, but whether human activities are leading to an enhancement of the greenhouse effect.

Global surface temperatures have increased about 0.6°C (plus or minus 0.2°C) since the late-19th century, and about 0.4°F (0.2 to 0.3°C) over the past 25 years (the period with the most credible data). The warming has not been globally uniform. Some areas (including parts of the southeastern U.S.) have, in fact, cooled over the last century. The recent warmth has been greatest over North America and Eurasia between 40 and 70°N. Warming, assisted by the record El Niño (Southern Oscillation is a periodic change in the atmosphere and ocean of the tropical Pacific region. It is defined in the atmosphere by the sign of the pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia, and in the ocean by warming or cooling of surface waters of the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño is the warm phase of the oscillation and La Niña is the the cold phase. The oscillation does not have a specific period, but occurs every three to eight years. Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain a matter of research.)of 1997-1998, has continued right up to the present, with 2001 being the second warmest year on record after 1998.

Raise in sea level:
Global means sea level has been rising at an average rate of 1 to 2 mm/year over the past 100 years, which is significantly larger than the rate averaged over the last several thousand years. Projected increase from 1990-2100 is anywhere from 0.09-0.88 meters, depending on which greenhouse gas scenario is used and many physical uncertainties in contributions to sea-level rise from a variety of frozen and unfrozen water sources.

The future?
Due to the enormous complexity of the atmosphere, the most useful tools for gauging future changes are 'climate models'. These are computer-based mathematical models which simulate, in three dimensions, the climate's behavior, its components and their interactions.

Climate models are constantly improving based on both our understanding and the increase in computer power, though by definition, a computer model is a simplification and simulation of reality, meaning that it is an approximation of the climate system. The first step in any modeled projection of climate change is to first simulate the present climate and compare it to observations. If the model is considered to do a good job at representing modern climate, then certain parameters can be changed, such as the concentration of greenhouse gases, which helps us understand how the climate would change in response. Projections of future climate change therefore depend on how well the computer climate model simulates the climate and on our understanding of how forcing functions will change in the future. The

IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios determines the range of future possible greenhouse gas concentrations and other forcing based on considerations such as population growth, economic growth, energy efficiency and a host of other factors. This leads a wide range of possible forcing scenarios, and consequently a wide range of possible future climates. According to the range of possible forcing scenarios, and taking into account uncertainty in climate model performance, the IPCC projects a global temperature increase of anywhere from 1.4 - 5.8°C from 1990-2100. However, this global average will integrate widely varying regional responses, such as the likelihood that land areas will warm much faster than ocean temperatures, particularly those land areas in northern high latitudes (and mostly in the cold season).

Precipitation is also expected to increase over the 21st century, particularly at northern mid-high latitudes, though the trends may be more variable in the tropics. Snow extent and sea-ice are also projected to decrease further in the northern hemisphere, and glaciers and ice-caps are expected to continue to retreat.